Jeg har efter at have læst TJ's analyser af russiske aktier og mineaktier på Nordnetbloggen (http://www.nordnetbloggen.dk/er-det-tid-til-at-koebe-russiske-aktier/28/03/2015/?readmore=1#respond) fattet en del interesse for russiske aktier og i særdeleshed denne Norilsk Nickel.
Hvad synes PI om den?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2933036-norilsk-nickel-a-dividend-play-with-a-significant-growth-potential
Hvad synes PI om den?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2933036-norilsk-nickel-a-dividend-play-with-a-significant-growth-potential
7/4 2015 16:56 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 0
72076 "MR. "RISK" SAYS BUY RUSSIA AND I SORT OF AGREE".
Lars Tvede har før skudt papegøjen på investering i russiske aktier. Her skriver han aktuelt på Facebook d. 30. marts en status investering i Rusland:
"I sort of can't get over that one of the analysts in this story is called Andrew Risk, but I have a bit of Russian equities in my portfolio. Here is why:
1. THE CONFLICT. I think there is a fair probability that the Ukraine cease-fire will turn the conflict into a "cold war" or "frozen conflict" for years, if not decades, meaning that hostilities die out with neither parts yielding - think the Koreas. With a frozen military conflict established, Ukraine could never join NATO or the EU, and avoiding this is a key Russian objective. And please note: the rebels hold less than 5 % of Ukraine.
2. MILITARY INTENTIONS. Russia has made very large military drills in the North Atlantic and has made military shows of power elsewhere. That is meant as a threat, but "a dog that barks rarely bites", as they say. If Russia had intention of making a big military intervention, I doubt that it would signal it beforehand. Of course, the purposes of military action could be to create an aggressive response that would seem to justify establishment of a Russian land-bridge to Crimea, but none of the activities are pointed in that direction.
3. ECONOMIC INTER-DEPENDENCIES. Approx. 75 % of Russian natural gas exports go to the EU, but less than 30 % of EUs gas consumption comes from Russia - and there is unused shale gas in EU. And Ukraine is Russia's second largest export market just after China. It is thus very costly for Russia to have conflicts with the EU and Ukraine. And Ukraine is highly dependent on Russian gas.
4. DOMESTIC POLITICS. Historically, Russians have tended to riot against leaders who brought them, into conflict and caused them serious economic harm.
5. OIL. Oil prices may be bottoming, although I am less certain on that (Was short until very recently.)
6. VALUATION. Russian equities trade at a consensus forward P/E of approx. 5, meaning an earnings yield of approx. 20 %. In most of the rest of the world, you get approx. 6-9% earnings yield. And the ruble is trading at approx. 50% of fair value, but is now rising even as they cut interest rates.
Conclusion: I wouldn't suggest to overindulge in Russian forex swaps, bonds or equities, but having a bit of it in a portfolio makes sense to me".
http://money.cnn.com/.../investing/russia-markets-time-to-buy/
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Lars-Tvede/836679613021476?notif_t=page_invite_accepted
Lars Tvede har før skudt papegøjen på investering i russiske aktier. Her skriver han aktuelt på Facebook d. 30. marts en status investering i Rusland:
"I sort of can't get over that one of the analysts in this story is called Andrew Risk, but I have a bit of Russian equities in my portfolio. Here is why:
1. THE CONFLICT. I think there is a fair probability that the Ukraine cease-fire will turn the conflict into a "cold war" or "frozen conflict" for years, if not decades, meaning that hostilities die out with neither parts yielding - think the Koreas. With a frozen military conflict established, Ukraine could never join NATO or the EU, and avoiding this is a key Russian objective. And please note: the rebels hold less than 5 % of Ukraine.
2. MILITARY INTENTIONS. Russia has made very large military drills in the North Atlantic and has made military shows of power elsewhere. That is meant as a threat, but "a dog that barks rarely bites", as they say. If Russia had intention of making a big military intervention, I doubt that it would signal it beforehand. Of course, the purposes of military action could be to create an aggressive response that would seem to justify establishment of a Russian land-bridge to Crimea, but none of the activities are pointed in that direction.
3. ECONOMIC INTER-DEPENDENCIES. Approx. 75 % of Russian natural gas exports go to the EU, but less than 30 % of EUs gas consumption comes from Russia - and there is unused shale gas in EU. And Ukraine is Russia's second largest export market just after China. It is thus very costly for Russia to have conflicts with the EU and Ukraine. And Ukraine is highly dependent on Russian gas.
4. DOMESTIC POLITICS. Historically, Russians have tended to riot against leaders who brought them, into conflict and caused them serious economic harm.
5. OIL. Oil prices may be bottoming, although I am less certain on that (Was short until very recently.)
6. VALUATION. Russian equities trade at a consensus forward P/E of approx. 5, meaning an earnings yield of approx. 20 %. In most of the rest of the world, you get approx. 6-9% earnings yield. And the ruble is trading at approx. 50% of fair value, but is now rising even as they cut interest rates.
Conclusion: I wouldn't suggest to overindulge in Russian forex swaps, bonds or equities, but having a bit of it in a portfolio makes sense to me".
http://money.cnn.com/.../investing/russia-markets-time-to-buy/
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Lars-Tvede/836679613021476?notif_t=page_invite_accepted
Hej Helge
Tak for svar.
Jeg læste godt tidligere i dag Lars Tvedes kommentarer, og han er en mand jeg lytter til (ligesom dig i øvrigt). Desværre siger han ikke noget mere selskabsspecifikt, og det var lidt det jeg lurede på.
Men mineaktier er historisk set 'billige' og både TJ og Tvede taler pt. for Russiske aktier, så måske skulle man satse et frimærke....?
Tak for svar.
Jeg læste godt tidligere i dag Lars Tvedes kommentarer, og han er en mand jeg lytter til (ligesom dig i øvrigt). Desværre siger han ikke noget mere selskabsspecifikt, og det var lidt det jeg lurede på.
Men mineaktier er historisk set 'billige' og både TJ og Tvede taler pt. for Russiske aktier, så måske skulle man satse et frimærke....?
7/4 2015 23:15 byggegrej.dk 272078 Lars Tvede var i millionær klubben d. 18/3 hvor han kort omtalte Russiske aktier. Der nævnte han bygge-branchen og dagligvare butikker, omkring 27 min. inde i udsendelsen.
Nogen der har et bud på hvor man finder en rimelig bred etf.for de sektorer i Rusland?
http://www.radio24syv.dk/programmer/millionaerklubben/11379403/millionaerklubben-18-03-2015/
Nogen der har et bud på hvor man finder en rimelig bred etf.for de sektorer i Rusland?
http://www.radio24syv.dk/programmer/millionaerklubben/11379403/millionaerklubben-18-03-2015/
Lars Tvedes "analyse" er ikke udtømmende. Der er væsentlige forhold, som han ikke diskuterer.
Et af dem er "safety of principal". Dvs. hvis man skulle være så heldig at tjene penge i Rusland, hvordan får man dem så ud igen?
Tvede taler selv om "cold war". Vi oplever, at økonomiske sanktioner er det primære kampmiddel mellem Vesten og Rusland. Hvorfor skulle Putin sidde og se på, at kapital siver ud af landet? Hvorfor ikke konfiskere den? Det gør man i en rigtig krig. Eller bare lægge en særskat på 95% på kapitalindkomster til lande, som har indført sanktioner mod Rusland?
Hertil kommer erhvervsklimaet i Rusland. Oligarkerne har skrabt deres formuer sammen med midler, vi ikke er vant til i Danmark. Hvis en oligark beslutter at overtage din russiske investering til en billig penge, hvad gør du så?
Et af dem er "safety of principal". Dvs. hvis man skulle være så heldig at tjene penge i Rusland, hvordan får man dem så ud igen?
Tvede taler selv om "cold war". Vi oplever, at økonomiske sanktioner er det primære kampmiddel mellem Vesten og Rusland. Hvorfor skulle Putin sidde og se på, at kapital siver ud af landet? Hvorfor ikke konfiskere den? Det gør man i en rigtig krig. Eller bare lægge en særskat på 95% på kapitalindkomster til lande, som har indført sanktioner mod Rusland?
Hertil kommer erhvervsklimaet i Rusland. Oligarkerne har skrabt deres formuer sammen med midler, vi ikke er vant til i Danmark. Hvis en oligark beslutter at overtage din russiske investering til en billig penge, hvad gør du så?
9/4 2015 11:00 Jolka 072088 Jeg har investeret i SBER bank, men solgte dem for nylig, da jeg blev bange for at miste alt. Siden er de steget. Jeg skal sige, at jeg har tabt ret meget på dem, idet jeg købte før krisen og min daværende rådgiver ikke mente, at krisen ville påvirke kursen
9/4 2015 10:28 Jolka 072087 Du kan investere i SBER bank. Det skulle være en af de sikreste. Efter hvad jeg har hørt.
Du kunne også overveje at gå ETF-vejen og få noget mere spredning.
IShares har en russisk ETF, hvor Norilsk vægter ca. 7% og Sberbank ca. 9,5%. Gazprom fylder lidt vel meget efter min smag med næsten 22%.
https://www.ishares.com/dk/private/da/produkter/253736/ishares-msci-russia-adrgdr-ucits-etf
IShares har en russisk ETF, hvor Norilsk vægter ca. 7% og Sberbank ca. 9,5%. Gazprom fylder lidt vel meget efter min smag med næsten 22%.
https://www.ishares.com/dk/private/da/produkter/253736/ishares-msci-russia-adrgdr-ucits-etf
